Understanding Risk/Reward and probabilities (2024)

Many new traders start off by trying to maximize their percentage of winning trades, the obvious thinking being that the more I win, the better my trading results will be. Although this is not incorrect, it is certainly not the full story. What many would-be traders don’t know is that it is quite possible to have a win percentage well above 50% and still lose money, and that there are some professionals out there who might only have a winning percentage as low as 30% yet still make money.

What traders need to be trying to maximize is their expectancy. Expectancy is a statistical concept that speaks to an expected payoff over numerous trials. The equation is:

E = (W x R) – [(1-W) X L]

Where

E = Expectancy

W= Probability of winning (win percentage)

R = Reward of a winning trade

L = Loss of a losing trade

Maximizing expectancy

For those who are not mathematically inclined do not fear, it is the conclusion that is important, more than the underlying maths.

There are two parts to the expectancy equation

  • Probability of winning or your win percentage – this is the part of the equation that most new comers focus on.
  • Risk/Reward ratio – this is the often neglected part of the equation when trying to become a profitable trader

Risk/Reward ratio is the average size of a winning trade divided by the average size of a losing trade. The graph below illustrates an individual trade where the Risk/Reward ratio is 3.21.

Understanding Risk/Reward and probabilities (1)

Obviously the higher this number the better. By maintaining a consistently large Risk/Reward ratio it is possible to have a probability of winning well below 50% and have a positive expectancy (i.e. make money in the long run).

By doing some basic arithmetic to the expectancy equation we can come to some interesting conclusions. Assuming that the long term expectancy = 0 (i.e. our trader will break even)

W X R = (1-W) x L

R / L = (1-W) / W

It is now possible to plot the risk reward relationship on a chart and the various break even points.

Understanding Risk/Reward and probabilities (2)X=Risk/Reward Ratio, Y=Percentage of winners

A trader should use this chart in the following way.

If you have a win percentage of 50%, in order for you to break even your average winner must be equal to your average loser (Risk/Reward =1). If you have calculated that your win percentage is 50% then you should always aim ensure that you will make more money if your trade is a winner than you you would lose if it were a loser. Otherwise at best you will break even.

If you have a win percentage of 30% then to break even you would need your average winner to be 2.3 times the size of your average loser. (Risk/Reward = 2.3) Therefore, if your anticipated win percentage is 30% do not take any trade unless your potential risk/reward is larger than this.

When starting out a trader should primarily be thinking about maximizing expectancy, and when deciding on your trading method consider always keeping the risk/reward ratio on your side, not just the percentage win rate.

Understanding Risk/Reward and probabilities (2024)

FAQs

Understanding Risk/Reward and probabilities? ›

Risk and reward are terms that refer to the probability of incurring a profit (upside) or loss (downside) as a result of a trading or investing decision. Risk is the uncertainty that you take on when opening a position, as the outcome may not be what you expected. Reward is the positive outcome of your position.

How do you understand risk to reward? ›

The risk/reward ratio is measured by dividing the distance from your entry point to Stop Loss and the distance from your entry point to Take Profit levels. The relationship between these two numbers helps traders define whether the trade is worth it or now.

What is the 1.5 risk-reward ratio? ›

The 1.5 Risk-Reward Ratio: Balancing Risk and Reward

A commonly cited benchmark in trading is the 1.5 risk-reward ratio. This ratio suggests that for every unit of risk taken (usually measured as a percentage or dollar amount), an investor should aim for a potential reward that is one and a half times greater.

What is a 3 to 1 risk-reward ratio strategy? ›

In many cases, market strategists find the ideal risk/reward ratio for their investments to be approximately 1:3, or three units of expected return for every one unit of additional risk. Investors can manage risk/reward more directly through the use of stop-loss orders and derivatives such as put options.

What is the formula for risk to reward? ›

Risk/reward ratio = total profit target ÷ maximum risk price

If after calculating the ratio, it is below your threshold, you may wish to increase your downside target.

What is risk to reward probability? ›

The risk-reward ratio is a way of assessing potential returns that you stand to make for every unit of risk. For example, if you risk $100 and expect to make $300, the risk-reward ratio is 1:3 or 0.33.

What is an example of a risk-reward situation? ›

The risk of losing $50 for the chance to make $100 might be appealing. That's a 1:2 risk-reward, which is a ratio where a lot of professional investors start to get interested because it allows investors to double their money. Similarly, if the person offered you $150, then the ratio goes to 1:3.

What is a bad risk-reward ratio? ›

In general, traders avoid opening trades that have 1 risk and less than 1 reward ratio. For instance, if you find a trading setup that requires you to place Stop Loss 90 pips away and Take Profit target is 30 pips away, most professional traders will not take the trade.

Is a 2 to 1 risk-reward ratio good? ›

A positive reward:risk ratio such as 2:1 would dictate that your potential profit is larger than any potential loss, meaning that even if you suffer a losing trade, you only need one winning trade to make you a net profit.

What is 0.5 risk to reward? ›

The risk-to-reward ratio can be less than 0.3, but taking a higher risk reduces your chances of profit, whereas taking a lower risk does not always result in a decent profit. A maximum risk/reward ratio of 0.5 is recommended. With this ratio, you have a better chance of profitability.

What is the best risk reward ratio for scalping? ›

For any stock you plan to scalp, you must understand the price supports, resistances and the set-up. From there, you can calculate the share sizing and the probabilities versus the risk. In scalping, a 3:1 risk to reward ratio is common (although, lower risk/reward is always more favorable).

What is a good risk reward ratio for swing trading? ›

Generally, a 1:2 risk-reward ratio is favorable for short-swing trades.

What is the risk reward vs win ratio? ›

Risk/reward is a ratio of the size of winning trades compared to losing trades. If lose $100 on a losing trade but make $200 on a winning trade your risk/reward is 100/200=0.5. You can also think of it as reward/risk = 200/100 = 2. Meaning your win is twice as big as your loss.

How do you evaluate risk-reward? ›

How do you calculate risk and reward? Here's how to calculate a risk-reward ratio: Divide the amount you could profit (that's the reward) by the amount you stand to lose (that's the risk). So if you bought a stock for $100 and plan to sell it when it hits $200, the net profit would be $100.

How do you balance risk and reward? ›

How can you balance risk and reward in decision-making?
  1. Assess the situation.
  2. Consider your team and stakeholders.
  3. Balance your intuition and analysis.
  4. Manage your risk appetite and tolerance.
  5. Review and learn from your decisions.
  6. Adapt and improve your decision-making skills.
  7. Here's what else to consider.
Sep 14, 2023

What is the risk-reward theory? ›

Risk-return tradeoff is the trading principle that links risk with reward. According to risk-return tradeoff, if the investor is willing to accept a higher possibility of losses, then invested money can render higher profits. To calculate investment risk, investors use alpha, beta, and Sharpe ratios.

How do you evaluate risk and reward? ›

The reward and risk scores are calculated from a set of performance indicators. The reward score indicates the potential business benefits derived from an idea, and the risk score shows the probability of its success. In addition, there are estimates for the expected revenue and cost or effort of the idea.

What is the principle of risk reward? ›

Risk-return tradeoff is the trading principle that links risk with reward. According to risk-return tradeoff, if the investor is willing to accept a higher possibility of losses, then invested money can render higher profits.

What is the theory of risk and reward? ›

This risk–reward structure takes a precise form—namely, a hyperbolic function—where the chances of winning are an inverse function of the payoffs (rewards). As a result, the probability of winning decreases as payoffs increase.

What is the basic relationship between risk and reward? ›

The risk-return tradeoff states the higher the risk, the higher the reward—and vice versa. Using this principle, low levels of uncertainty (risk) are associated with low potential returns and high levels of uncertainty with high potential returns.

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