Backtesting: Manual Strategies for Trading (2024)

Backtesting is the process of assessing how well a trading strategy or analytical method could perform, based on historical data. It is a key component in developing an effective trading strategy. There are infinite possibilities for strategies, and any slight alteration will change the results. This is why backtesting is important, as it shows whether certain parameters will work better than others.

To backtest, a trading strategy is required. At minimum, a trading strategy helps to define entry and exit points for both winning and losing trades, plus a position size. In addition, a trading strategy will often provide context, such as defining if and when trades should be taken. For example, only when the price is above or below a moving average, or during the first hour of the day.

Backtesting can be a simple or complex process, and traders may use either automated or manual testing. The former requires automated software​​ that searches for trades that meet the strategy criteria, then adds up the winning and losing trades to show if the strategy was profitable over a specified amount of time. Manual backtesting refers to a process where traders analyse past trades based on their strategies, and then add up the results themselves.

There are several steps to manually backtest a trading strategy or model. Backtesting requires historical data, which shows past price movements of a particular asset from trading charts. To backtest, a trader will typically need several weeks of historical data for strategies where the trades are short-term in nature. Many years of historical data may be required if testing a long-term strategy.

Here are some basic steps that you could take when carrying out a manual backtest:

Technical indicators​​ work well for backtesting because they provide specific readings at a given time. For example, if a trade is taken when the relative strength index (RSI) moves above 25 after being below the figure on a daily close basis, and the trade is taken at the following open, this is a very specific signal and can easily be tested, assuming that the exit is equally precise.

Backtest indicators can include the levels or signals that will trigger an entry or exit for a trade. Typically, this is an objective time, like a close or open following the signal, which helps avoid any confusion as to when the trade should be taken. There are a number of technical indicators available on our trading platform that could be used to backtest a trading strategy or model. Popular indicators for backtesting include Donchian Channels​​, Ichimoku Cloud and Heikin Ashi.

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Whereas backtesting requires finding trades based on historical data to evaluate its future performance, forward testing is the process of simulated trading, where you “paper trade” a strategy in live conditions. This requires the trader to watch the market in real-time, taking the strategy entry and exit signals as they occur.

Backtesting lets a trader know whether a strategy has profit potential, while forward testing helps to confirm or refute this. Forward testing (also known as walk forward optimisation) is also slower because it needs to be performed in real time. Each day is traded as it comes, whereas with backtesting, a trader can arrange years’ worth of historical trades in a single day, if desired.

Backtesting and forward testing can be used together to give a more complete picture of how a strategy performs, both historically and in real time.

Manually backtesting in forex works the same as in other financial markets. However, as the forex market​​ is open 24-hours per day during the week, you need to be certain to only backtest during times of the day that you can actually trade. Backtesting a forex strategy over a month and using all hours over each day is unlikely to provide reliable information, unless automation is involved.

Before backtesting, consider the time of day you will be able to trade. Perhaps you can only enter trades within a three-hour window. When backtesting in forex, you only need to record entries and their resulting profits and losses that occur during the trading window.

Automated software is not required to assess the validity of a strategy using backtesting or forward testing. All that is needed is a demo or live trading account on our platform. After registering for our free backtesting software, you will have access to historical data on all chart timeframes, markets and assets, and a wide array of technical indicators to manually test nearly any trading strategy.

We also offer an inbuilt backtesting tool that relates to trading patterns. Our price projection tool is designed to help traders spot the direction of price action by measuring historical performance for each trading pattern. Learn more about this in our section on useful trading tools​​.

Backtesting can be a useful tool when you are hesitant to put a strategy into action straight away. However, there are still a couple of pitfalls to consider.

The first is the problem of ‘over optimisation’. This is when a trader keeps changing their strategy to find the largest profit based on the historical data, which can lead to hindsight bias. The viable strategy may be ruined because now it has become customised only for the exact conditions that were present during the backtesting period. In the future, if conditions are different, the strategy could perform poorly.

The second pitfall is the fact that the more complex a strategy becomes, the harder it is to accurately backtest. Similarly, while more backtesting is better than less, testing on more timeframes, markets, and over a longer period takes considerably more time. All this effort may be undertaken only to discover that a strategy does not work.

Considering the above points, backtesting is still an important part of developing a profitable and successful trading strategy, without the risks involved. Backtesting with a demo account works in a different way to trading with real money, where emotions can be high and you may miss trades or enter unsuccessful ones. Then, when you are confident that your trading strategy may bring success, our live account comes with many risk management tools at hand.

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