This Weekend in Racing (2024)

NYRA Bets is bringing you expert picks from Matthew DeSantis all week long. Check back as we continually update with more picks and analysis.

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Pace: Expect an honest pace in the signature race on Penn National’s big day. #1 Aspenite (10/1) might be getting the blinkers off, but he has been sprinting at 5 ½ furlongs, so it is hard to imagine he won’t show significant early speed from the inside rail. #3 Tropandhagen (30/1) would appear to be serving as a bit of a rabbit while coming off a lengthy layoff as the horse regularly opened big margins up front the last two times he routed on the turf. Meanwhile, horses like #2 Good Lord Lorrie (6/1), #4 First World War (4/1), #7 Set (6/1), and #10 Trikari (3/1) all have good tactical speed and should want to settle somewhere between third and fifth, which could be trouble as a couple of them are likely to get shuffled back further than they would prefer. Looking for horses with a strong late pace figures and stamina for two turns will be critical in this spot.

#2 Good Lord Lorrie (9/2) – The son of Hard Spun had been trained by George Weaver, but since Weaver started serving a suspension, he is being run out of the Peter Gulyas barn. Barn shifts aside, there is a lot to like about this lightly raced horse making only his third career start. He broke his maiden last summer at Saratoga going 5 ½ furlongs and promptly went to the bench for eight months before returning to win the Woodhaven Stakes at a mile in April at Aqueduct. You rarely see a horse win a stakes race on the stretch out while coming off a significant layoff following a maiden victory. A horse like Deterministic did it recently when he won the Gotham (G3) off a long layoff and while that horse disappointed in his next two starts, it also corresponded with him continuing to stretch out in distance. In the case of Good Lord Lorrie, he is going right back to the mile distance where he was successful in the Woodhaven. He has good tactical speed and jockey Flavien Prat, who rode him last time out, should be able to secure a pocket trip on the rail behind the early pacesetters. At a little bit of a price, he provides nice value for a horse that could continue to improve and who has been working out extremely well leading up to Friday’s race as evidenced by the 47.2 four-furlong bullet work that was first of 59 at Saratoga on May 24.

#6 Please Advise (6/1) – The other former George Weaver runner now running for Peter Gulyas, Please Advise is an interesting horse who could get overlooked while getting the right setup. He recently finished third in the English Channel Stakes at Gulfstream Park behind #8 Freedom Principle (5/1), but the reason I prefer this runner is that he’s taken his form on the road a bit more while the horse who beat him is making his first start outside of Gulfstream Park. The son of Palace Malice broke his maiden debut at Belmont Park before running in a trio of listed stakes races including a third-place effort in the Juvenile Sprint at Kentucky Downs. Overall, he has run over seven different turf courses in his seven career starts while winning twice and hitting the board five times. His last race in the English Channel Stakes was his first start in six months and he started to lug in a bit late while making up ground. I would expect a much stronger effort this time as his conditioning will be improved. He likes to come from off the pace and should get ample fractions up front to ensure jockey Javier Castellanos can get him in a position to make a late run. If he gets lost on the board, I would be tempted to use him as a win bet.

#10 Trikari (3/1) – The American Turf (G2) winner has the best accomplishment in the field having taken the premiere turf race for three-year-olds at this point in the season. While he showed a lot of class winning at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard, he also got an ideal trip tracking the pace and getting clear of trouble. Things on Friday will not be as easy since he will be breaking from the far outside post and jockey Umberto Rispoli will need to find a way to save ground. As discussed in the pace dynamics, there is a fair amount of speed to his inside. While Aspenite and Tropandhagen might clear off, several others are going to want to secure a similar tracking trip, which could force the son of Oscar Performance to be hung wide around both turns. While the Graham Motion runner has three wins in his last four efforts, he is also going from being 47/1 last time out to be the 3/1 favorite. He does have great versatility as he has won up front, stalking the pace, and tracking a couple lengths off the lead. Motion is always a trusted horseman in knowing where to spot his horses, but this is a short price for a horse that has only won once over the turf.

#7 Set (6/1) – The Mark Casse runner is an interesting case as there are boxes he checks but also reasons to be wary about whether he can revert to form after a disappointing effort in the American Turf (G2). Let’s start with the positive. After easily winning his first two races, including the Cutler Bay Stakes, he took a step back last time out at Churchill Downs, but he also had a bad start and was forced to settle toward the back of the field. That is not his game as he prefers to intently track close to the pace. In some ways you could draw a line through that American Turf (G2) effort and assume with a better start he will be a significant player. The hesitation with that is his only two wins have come at Gulfstream Park, and he has yet to show he can take his form on the road. The turf in South Florida can produce fast fractions and big Beyer Speed Figures that do not always translate to other tracks. That said, he gets jockey Esmail Jaramillo back on the mount who rode him to victory in those first two career starts. Assuming a better start, he should be in the early mix and if his Beyer Speed Figures at Gulfstream Park are “real” then he is a major player in this field at a generous price. The New York-bred is sired by Oscar Performance, who has been an outstanding turf route sire (17% winners) and has some turf route influence underneath as well. Casse is a trusted trainer on the grass and one that typically manages his horses well, so it is promising to see him put Set right back into graded stake competition after his disappointment at Churchill Downs.

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