Belmont Stakes Racing Festival - Friday Picks (2024)

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THIS FRIDAY IN RACING

Sara Elbadwi handicaps races 4 and 9 on the card, while the NYRA Bets' Staff put their heads together to give you their thoughts the other stakes Friday at Belmont Park. As always, NYRA Bets has Free Equibase PPs to do your own handicapping, and provides TrackMaster Picks for every race as well as the selections below.

1 - In Italian: Not trying to beat the favorite who is also the early speed. Though third in this race last year behind Regal Glory and Wakanaka, her game reached a whole new level once she was allowed to use her speed in the G1 Diana, and since then, she's run nothing but triple digit Beyers in Grade 1 races. The only time she was even favored was last out in the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. Her job is further simplified by the draw, and this is a distance she's most familiar with throughout her career. Her last race serves as a promising starting point for her 5 year old campaign and this could be another building block towards more success this summer.

3 - Spendarella: First US defeat in the G2 Distaff Turf Mile last time out at Churchill Downs behind Fluffy Socks going today's distance, though that was her first start off a layoff as well. She's been sensational, I've always been a big fan of hers, and with a different race dynamic with another horse really pushing In Italian, I'd pick her. She's the best of the rest in this short field, but she'd need to really keep In Italian in her sights and that could ultimately burn her out.

4 - Wakanaka: Last win was in the Fall Harvest at Keeneland following the Breeders' Cup races, and she's now third off the layoff, having run 4th in that Distaff Turf Mile that Spendarella exits as well. Her best Beyer speed figure was this race last year, a 97, where she was 2nd behind Regal Glory over In Italian, but she was in better form then and In Italian is in better form now.

5 - Speak of the Devil: A horse that has generally disappointed in the US since her debut win in the states. She was favored in this race last year, and she's only run four times since joining the Chad Brown barn, none of which were as good as her performance in the 2022 Distaff Turf Mile. Bringing that race back makes her a contender, but where is it?

6 – McKulick: She has a win over this course/distance and Chad Brown is keeping Irad Ortiz in the saddle, which tells me he feels confident in her chances by giving his go-to guy the leg up. I’m hoping second off the layoff will be enough fitness for her to get the job done, and she’ll likely be a bigger price than the other Brown runners.

8 – With the Moonlight: If I like McKulick, I also have to like this filly who ran with her in the 2022 Turf Triple and defeated her in the Saratoga Oaks. Her US form is excellent anytime she ships from across the pond, so I have no doubt she will be in the mix with the best European connections behind her.

5 – Virginia Joy: I cannot say no to a German-bred G2 winner going 1 ¼ on the turf. This horse was bred to run this course. Her efforts haven’t been as top notch as of late, but she missed this same race by a length in 2022, so she certainly belongs here. And at 15-1 ML, I will shoot my shoot that she can create a nice exotic payout.

3 – Didia (Arg): Riding a 7-race win streak is tough to maintain and this mare has taken her time with significant breaks in between starts. I’m not convinced she’s been running against the best competition, which, is why I positioned her for 4th. Beating a G3 field at Churchill doesn’t override G1 wins over this surface, even if you are on a winning streak.

8 - Accede: Gets a perfect outside draw and she was a bit keen early in her last start, the Eight Belles, which was only her 2nd start. She didn't finish that far off of Red Carpet Ready and Munnys Gold and while the short comment says that she hung in the stretch, those were two horses that were not coming back to her. She needs to take another step forward, but she had a good work here on May 26th, a bullet 4 furlongs in :48 flat, and if distance propels her in the right direction and that pace gets hot with Munnys Gold and Goodgirl Badhabits, she's a better price than Pretty Mischievous getting a similar setup.

6 - Pretty Mischievous: The Kentucky Oaks winner coming in certainly adds some flair to this race as she cuts back slightly from that 1 1/8th miles victory where she sat a comfortable outside stalking trip and held off the closers well. With two other potential speeds to her inside, it's likely she gets a similar trip though there is one speed to her outside in Goodgirl Badhabits. Her 92 Beyer in the Oaks was a career best and maybe 2/1 is value as Munnys Gold has the distance question to answer while she does not. However, you could also argue that she's not greatly separated from this field from a numbers standpoint, though she's never been off the board in 7 starts.

5 - Munnys Gold: Red Carpet Ready is a good horse and she fought her to the wire. Can she get the distance here? Her sibling Gregory's Pride is all turf and was third in his one route attempt. The dam was unraced, but granddam Alseera won up to a mile right here at Belmont Park. Munnings, her sire, leans sprint, but he is 16% with dirt routers and if anybody can get horses to stretch out effectively, it's trainer Todd Pletcher. Sprints to routes on dirts in Grade 1 races, Pletcher is 4/21 (19%, $1.43 ROI) over the past 5 years. Those four are Vino Rosso, Life is Good, Chocolate Gelato, and Forte. All except Chocolate Gelato had experience routing in the past, however. She's going to get tested early too as there are other speed types.

1 - Dorth Vader: Her big win was a 46/1 upset, taking the G2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream as favored Red Carpet Ready couldn't quite get the distance after setting a legitimate pace. As far as the rest of who she beat, it's questionable as both Positano Sunset and Undervalued Asset had to cutback and drop in class to run well in their subsequent starts and the rest of the field hasn't done much since. Her Gulfstream Park Oaks was a regression, but her 5th place finish in the Kentucky Oaks was an even performance. She's now been transferred to George Weaver from Michael Yates, who first off the trainer switch in 5/18 on dirt (28%, $1.40 ROI) over the past five years. From the rail, perhaps she takes back and gets to the outside to stalk.

2 – Siskany: This gelding was second to MGSW Broome in Dubai two starts back and Appleby is bringing world-class jockey, William Buick over for the ride. No doubt he’s a true stayer and has been running on flat, unlike a lot of other runners in the field who are coming off hurdle races. I’m looking forward to seeing this one in such fun race with so many variables to consider.

7 - Amazing Grace: German-bred horses are notoriously tough stayers, so I’m banking that this mare will love the two-mile going in the Gold Cup. Rosario is back for the mount after he won on her at 1 ½ miles at Gulfstream this spring. Her European form was excellent as she’s hit the board in 14 of her 17 lifetime starts. I’m excited to see how she progresses with this added distance.

13 - The Grey Wizard: This gelding was knocking on the door of a stakes win in 2022 and had a nice confidence booster win at Keeneland in the spring going a 1 ½ miles. He’s a hard-trying horse as he always comes running at the end. Interesting that his sire, Caravaggio, was more of a sprinter, but his Galileo dam appears to be stretching him out.

11 - High Definition: This horse was hitting board in big G1 European races last year (and ran against the mighty Baaeed in the summer), and then switched to hurdle races in December. I have no idea what’s going on with the occupational switch, but with Joseph O’Brien overseeing his horse, I’m completely down for throwing him in exotics to pick up a piece of the action. On the chance he’ll show some of his form from this time last year, he could be one to watch for a strong run.

The Intercontinental is a 6F sprint on turf for fillies and mares, and last year's winner, Caravel, came in having won her last four starts, a resume that none of the contenders in 2023 have. However Amy C (GB) is coming off two stakes wins and has a 50% win percentage. She's been racing mostly in California since being imported from France, although she does have one start at Belmont. Not sure she is up to the win, but she has been getting ready for this race since scratching out of the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland

Bubble Rock is coming off a win in the License Fee Stakes at Belmont last month. She defeated Poppy Flower, Messidor (IRE) and Goin' Good, overcoming trouble where she was bumped, went 4 wide and then bumped again before rallying for a close finish.

Poppy Flower also had a troubled trip last out, getting bumped at the start and having to go wide to finish a strong second to Bubble Rock in the License Fee.

Rounding out the super, I see Bay Storm going to the front early, and having what it takes to stay up to show. After her last race, finishing second to Caravel in a 5 furlong sprint, I'm not sure she has what it takes to win, but I see her leading the pack and getting overtaken by Bubble Rock, or maybe even Poppy Flower.

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