'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year (2024)

FAQs

Can the S&P 500 hit 6500? ›

Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist, said he sees the S&P 500 climbing to 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025.

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations.

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 10.4% in 2024, LSEG data showed. But stocks are also at high valuation levels. The S&P 500 trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio - a commonly used metric to value stocks - of 20.9, well above the index's historic average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

The S&P 500 could approach or exceed the 10,000 level by the early to mid-2030s. Many investors take it as a given that—since returns on the S&P 500 have been strong for 10-plus years—stocks are expensive and over-owned.

The Dow then climbed above 38,000 in January 2024. 1 The index reached a new all-time high on May 16, 2024, surpassing 40,000 for the first time.

While there could be a growth slowdown in the first half of 2024, experts believe growth should resume in the second half of the year. Americans faced many financial challenges this year, from persistent inflation to increasingly expensive debt.

One important thing for all investors to learn is that timing the market is impossible. And quite frankly, it's unimportant if you're investing in a high-quality S&P 500 index fund for the long term. Even if you buy at a market peak, your long-term returns should likely be excellent.

As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.

What is the expected return of the stock market in the next 10 years? ›

Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).

Average Price Target

Based on 504 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets to VOO holdings in the last 3 months. The average price target is $543.20 with a high forecast of $633.10 and a low forecast of $449.52. The average price target represents a 11.60% change from the last price of $486.73.

The analysts also hiked their 2025 earnings estimate for the S&P 500 to $270 from $250, and said they see a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 20.5 times for the index - citing improving U.S. economic growth and "superior margin expansion" from higher-margin stocks in the information-technology XX:SP500.

Earnings Rebound

Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth will accelerate to 9.7% in the second quarter and S&P 500 companies will report an impressive 10.8% earnings growth for the full calendar year in 2024.

The average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.47% over the last 30 years, as of the end of April 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 30-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.74%.

Yes, you may be able to beat the market, but with investment fees, taxes, and human emotion working against you, you're more likely to do so through luck than skill. If you can merely match the S&P 500, minus a small fee, you'll be doing better than most investors.

Over the past decade, you would have done even better, as the S&P 500 posted an average annual return of a whopping 12.68%. Here's how much your account balance would be now if you were invested over the past 10 years: $1,000 would grow to $3,300. $5,000 would grow to $16,498.