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Within the vast topic of retirement, the concept of “the 4% rule” hits right at the core of most people’s concerns: how much money is enough money to have in your savings when you finally reach retirement?
There’s no shortage of advice about how much you should save for retirement, but there’s a lot less clarity around how much money you’ll ultimately need to withdrawal when the time comes. This is what the 4% rule addresses.
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.
The 4% rule is a simple rule of thumb as opposed to a hard and fast rule for retirement income. Many factors influence the safe withdrawal rate such as risk tolerance, tax rates, the tax status of your portfolio (i.e., the ratio of tax-deferred assets to taxable assets to tax-free assets) and inflation, among others.
The upside to this go-to rule is its simplicity. Having a guideline for retirement spending that’s clean and simple makes planning much easier. The downsides are that it’s a number that might become outdated by the time you reach retirement, and it doesn’t adjust for market conditions, which surely will change year to year.
Let’s dig into the 4% rule a bit more — and unpack whether or not it might be a helpful guideline for your own retirement planning or whether it’s ill-equipped for the dynamic set of factors that rule over long-term savings and future spending.
History of the 4% rule
In 1994, using historical data on stock and bond returns over a 50-year period — 1926 to 1976 — financial advisor William Bengen challenged the prevailing narrative that withdrawing 5% yearly in retirement was a safe bet.
Based on a deep dive into the half century of market data, Bergen concluded that essentially any conceivable economic scenario (even the more tumultuous ones) would allow for a 4% withdrawal during the year they retire and then they’d adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.
Bengen used a 60/40 portfolio model (60% stocks , 40% bonds) and was conducted during a period of higher bond returns (higher interest rates) compared with current rates.
What the 4% rule doesn’t account for
Not to dismiss the diligent work of Bengen and the financial community that supported his conclusion, but, as with all pieces of conventional wisdom, the 4% rule doesn’t account for countless variables in each person’s individual situation. This is not so much the result of a failing in the rule itself, or the math that backs it up, but an inherent failing of attaching any firm, flat rule to governing long-term financial planning, given that the economic landscape over the long term is anything but flat and firm.
Here are a few factors that opting for a set-it-and-forget-it 4% flat withdrawal rate in retirement doesn’t include:
Medical expenses: Most of us will encounter them as we get older, especially in the golden years of retirement, but exactly what kind of medical expenses you’ll incur is practically impossible to predict. Some are also exponentially more costly than others. The other big variable that impacts the viability of the 4% rule: life expectancy. Needless to say, the longer you live, the longer you’ll need your savings to last.
Market fluctuations: The economy is unlikely to stay perfectly consistent and even-keeled for the entirety of your retirement years. In a booming economic environment, withdrawing more than 4% annually might be perfectly fine; in more uncertain times, you might need to pull back your spending a bit. Unfortunately, there’s no prescriptive, guiding rule for financial management that beats simply keeping an eye on your money and acting accordingly at any given time.
Personal tax rate: Another major unknown is your personal tax rate, which is affected by a number of factors including the types of investment accounts you have, the size of those accounts and your other income, deductions, credits and what state you live in.
Should you use the 4% rule?
So do these personal — and in some cases, wholly unknowable — details of our financial futures render the 4% rule useless? Not at all. It just needs to be adapted to your specific situation.
And that’s really the point, both of the 4% rule and any other financial rules of thumb: It’s less of a hard-and-fast mandate on what to do and more of a well-informed starting place, from which your own personal retirement savings and spending plan can be thoughtfully crafted. It doesn’t solve everything you need to consider about retirement finances, but many people consider it a very useful frame of reference to jump off from.
That said, the applicability of the 4% rule also depends on where your retirement assets are invested. If you’re primarily saving for retirement somewhere other than a portfolio of mostly stocks and bonds, the 4% rule is less likely to apply to your holdings. And even then, depending on the allocation between stocks and bonds, 4% might not be the right figure for your portfolio. Or it might be fitting today, but not 20 or 30 years from now. In any case, it’s between you and your financial advisor to figure out what projected withdrawal rate makes the most sense.
Bottom line
While the 4% rule can provide a helpful starting point for retirement planning, it’s not a one-size-fits-all solution. Factors such as market fluctuations, medical expenses and personal tax rates must be considered when determining a safe withdrawal rate. Consulting with a financial advisor can help you make the best decisions for your future financial stability. Remember, the 4% rule is just a guideline, not a definitive answer, and it is up to you to tailor it to your specific needs.
The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.
, you withdraw 4 percent of your portfolio value in the first year of retirement. The dollar amount of that withdrawal is then increased each year by the rate of inflation. For example, if you have a $500,000 nest egg, your first year withdrawal is equal to $20,000, which is 4 percent of $500,000.
The 4% rule limits annual withdrawals from your retirement accounts to 4% of the total balance in your first year of retirement. That means if you retire with $1 million saved, you'd take out $40,000. According to the rule, this amount is safe enough that you won't risk running out of money during a 30-year retirement.
It also assumes you never have years where you spend more, or less, than the inflation increase. This isn't how most people spend in retirement. Expenses may change from one year to the next, and the amount you spend may change throughout retirement.
The 4% rule is a popular retirement withdrawal strategy that suggests retirees can safely withdraw the amount equal to 4% of their savings during the year they retire and then adjust for inflation each subsequent year for 30 years.
This rule aims to provide retirees high confidence that they won't outlive their savings for 30 years. Though popular, it has faced criticism in recent years due to forecasts for lower returns on investments. But some financial experts say that the 4% rule may be safe again due to higher bond yields.
You may be wondering if you should include your future Social Security income in this equation, and the simple answer is, you don't. Think of Social Security as added “security” to your retirement budget.
According to the 4% rule, if you retire with $500,000 in assets, you should be able to withdraw $20,000 per year for 30 years or more. Moreover, investing this money in an annuity could provide a guaranteed annual income of $24,688 for those retiring at 55.
If you want to be 100% sure you won't run out of money, following the 4% rule likely isn't the best choice. Not only is it an older rule, but it also doesn't account for changing market conditions. In a recession, it's probably not wise to step up your withdrawal amounts; you may even want to reduce them slightly.
Using our portfolio of $400,000 and the 4% withdrawal rate, you could withdraw $16,000 annually from your retirement accounts and expect your money to last for at least 30 years. If, say, your Social Security checks are $2,000 monthly, you'd have a combined annual income in retirement of $40,000.
Once you reach 59½, you can take distributions from your 401(k) plan without being subject to the 10% penalty. However, that doesn't mean there are no consequences. All withdrawals from your 401(k), even those taken after age 59½, are subject to ordinary income taxes.
You can retire a little early on $400,000, but it won't be easy. If you have the option of working and saving for a few more years, it will give you a significantly more comfortable retirement.
How Many People Have $1,000,000 in Retirement Savings? According to Fidelity's Q3 2023 report, about 378,000 people had more than a million dollars in their 401(k)s.
According to EBRI estimates based on the latest Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, 3.2% of retirees have over $1 million in their retirement accounts, while just 0.1% have $5 million or more.
Around the U.S., a $1 million nest egg can cover an average of 18.9 years worth of living expenses, GoBankingRates found. But where you retire can have a profound impact on how far your money goes, ranging from as a little as 10 years in Hawaii to more than than 20 years in more than a dozen states.
Housing—which includes mortgage, rent, property tax, insurance, maintenance and repair costs—is the largest expense for retirees. More specifically, the average retiree household pays an average of $17,472 per year ($1,456 per month) on housing expenses, representing almost 35% of annual expenditures.
She made a withdrawal from her checking account. He underwent rehab to help him through his withdrawal from heroin. She experienced symptoms of nicotine withdrawal after she quit smoking.
Say an investor has retired with a $1 million portfolio.In her first year of retirement, under the 4% rule, she should withdraw 4% of that portfolio, or $40,000 ($1 million x 0.04). For each subsequent year, she should adjust the withdrawal amount for inflation.
An in-service withdrawal is a withdrawal from a qualified employer-sponsored retirement plan while an employee is still working. A 401(k) is a common example of these plans, but it can also include plans like 403(b). An in-service withdrawal may be possible at any time.
Introduction: My name is Greg O'Connell, I am a delightful, colorful, talented, kind, lively, modern, tender person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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