Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

Data Source: from January 1927 to April 2024 (~97 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 April 2024
Live Update: May 31 2024, 02:00PM Eastern TimeCurrency: USD

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.13%

1 Day

May 31 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time

2.54%

Current Month

May 2024

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 5 ETFs.

It's exposed for 40% on the Stock Market and for 20% on Commodities.

In the last 30 Years, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio obtained a 7.68% compound annual return, with a 7.75% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (1)

The first official book of Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2)

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Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight
(%)
ETF
Ticker
ETF
Currency
ETF NameInvestment Themes (Orig.Currency)
20.00

IJS

USDEquity, U.S., Small Cap, Value (USD)
20.00

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock MarketEquity, U.S., Large Cap (USD)
20.00

SHY

USDiShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondBond, U.S., Short Term (USD)
20.00

TLT

USDiShares 20+ Year Treasury BondBond, U.S., Long-Term (USD)
20.00

GLD

USDSPDR Gold TrustCommodity, Gold (USD)

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Apr 30, 2024

The Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

May 2024 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 30 April 2024

Live Update: May 31 2024, 02:00PM Eastern Time

Swipe left to see all data

Chg (%)Return (%)Return (%) as of Apr 30, 2024
1 DayTime ET(*)May 20241M6M1Y5Y10Y30YMAX
(~97Y)
Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio0.132.54-2.8612.166.095.725.467.688.35
US Inflation Adjusted return-3.1610.132.641.482.535.005.20
Components

IJS

USD1.0501:58PM, May 31 20244.18-6.5015.666.866.197.2810.1812.72

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market-0.3901:59PM, May 31 20243.55-4.3420.7321.9412.2711.7210.2910.09

SHY

USDiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond0.1001:59PM, May 31 20240.68-0.441.992.090.850.863.074.24

TLT

USDiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond0.5502:00PM, May 31 20242.75-6.457.60-14.07-4.430.105.084.90

GLD

USDSPDR Gold Trust-0.6502:00PM, May 31 20241.552.9915.0914.6511.825.485.914.87
Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1927
(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)
US Inflation is updated to Apr 2024. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.36% , 5Y: 4.18% , 10Y: 2.85% , 30Y: 2.55%

Live update: World Markets and Indexes

In 2023, the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio granted a 1.98% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Apr 30, 2024

An investment of 1$, since May 1994, now would be worth 9.21$, with a total return of 820.63% (7.68% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.33$, with a net total return of 332.67% (5.00% annualized).

An investment of 1$, since January 1927, now would be worth 2453.72$, with a total return of 245271.80% (8.35% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 138.72$, with a net total return of 13772.41% (5.20% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024

Metrics of Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio, updated as of 30 April 2024.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

  • no fees or capital gain taxes.
  • a rebalancing of the components at every January 1st. How do returns change with different rebalancing strategies?
  • the reinvestment of dividends.
  • the actual US Inflation rates.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 30 April 2024 (~97 years)

Swipe left to see all data

Metrics as of Apr 30, 2024
1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
(~97Y)
Investment Return (%)-2.861.3812.166.090.655.725.467.267.688.35
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details -3.160.2410.132.64-4.601.482.534.545.005.20
US Inflation (%)0.311.141.853.365.504.182.852.602.553.00
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.

DRAWDOWN

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-8.07-17.79-17.79-17.79-17.79-17.79-48.31
Start to Recovery (# months) details 528*28*28*28*28*70
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012022 012022 011929 09
Start to Bottom (# months)39999933
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092022 092022 091932 05
Bottom to End (# months)2191919191937
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1935 06
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-23.45
Start to Recovery (# months) details 71
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012022 012022 011937 03
Start to Bottom (# months)39999913
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092022 092022 091938 03
Bottom to End (# months)2191919191958
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1943 01
Longest negative period (# months) details 635*3939393974
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 052021 062020 082020 082020 082020 081927 01
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102024 042023 102023 102023 102023 101933 02
Annualized Return (%)-10.54-0.16-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.28
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-8.94-23.47-23.47-23.47-23.47-23.47-34.73
Start to Recovery (# months) details 535*35*35*35*35*44
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 062021 062021 062021 062021 061929 09
Start to Bottom (# months)3161616161633
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092022 092022 091932 05
Bottom to End (# months)2191919191911
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1933 04
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-27.60
Start to Recovery (# months) details 96
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082021 062021 062021 062021 062021 061946 06
Start to Bottom (# months)3161616161621
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092022 092022 091948 02
Bottom to End (# months)2191919191975
End (yyyy mm)2023 12-----1954 05
Longest negative period (# months) details 736*54717171151
Period Start (yyyy mm)2023 052021 052019 052017 122017 122017 121936 12
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 112024 042023 102023 102023 102023 101949 06
Annualized Return (%)-1.97-4.60-0.51-0.18-0.18-0.18-0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress

RISK INDICATORS

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Standard Deviation (%)11.5211.1410.378.488.117.758.82
Sharpe Ratio0.07-0.180.370.490.730.700.49
Sortino Ratio0.10-0.260.510.690.980.930.69
Ulcer Index3.248.196.484.904.103.586.94
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation0.530.060.550.640.890.990.95
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown0.750.040.320.310.410.430.17
% Positive Months details 50%50%60%62%65%65%64%
Positive Months6183675156237759
Negative Months618244584123409

LONG TERM RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized5.469.1910.4417.05
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized4.684.682.31
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized2.537.187.899.91
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized1.871.870.35

ROLLING PERIODS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized26.5517.9413.4510.449.097.68
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-14.810.583.164.686.85
% Positive Periods88%100%100%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized87.7229.6120.2411.557.367.11
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized---2.054.605.47
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized24.3915.1811.167.896.695.00
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-20.83-4.79-0.141.874.16
% Positive Periods84%92%99%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized87.7229.6120.2411.557.367.11
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized---2.054.605.47
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Over all the available data source (Jan 1927 - Apr 2024)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized72.3424.6920.8817.0513.8912.46
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-32.17-17.91-6.332.314.535.91
% Positive Periods82%95%97%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized84.4826.3016.088.785.314.23
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized---0.351.982.60
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized84.5524.3819.689.917.737.37
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-24.69-11.40-4.330.352.363.19
% Positive Periods73%88%95%100%100%100%
SWR - Safe Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized84.4826.3016.088.785.314.23
PWR - Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (%) - 100% Success - Annualized---0.351.982.60
WR calculated based on initial capital | Monthly withdrawals adjusted for inflation | Credits: BestRetirementPortfolio.com

Terms and Definitions

  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio.
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed.
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean.
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return.
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation).
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio.
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame.
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money in any case (money amount withdrawal).
    For instance: Your initial invested capital is 100.000$; withdrawal rate (annualized) is 4%. This means that, in the first month, you will withdraw 100.000 * 4% * 1/12 = 333.33$. The second month, you’ll withdraw 333.33$ plus the inflation monthly rate. You’ll continue adjusting your withdraw monthly for inflation.
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of the initial portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the beginning of each month with inflation adjustment, preserving the original invested capital, adjusted for inflation too.

Talking about withdrawal rates, how would you manage your early retirement with the Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio? Read more here

Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 30 April 2024

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If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

TYLER GOLDEN BUTTERFLY PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 May 1994 - 30 April 2024 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1927 - 30 April 2024 (~97 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

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Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

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