The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (2024)

Warren Buffet’s first rule of investing is to never lose money; his second is to never forget the first rule. This golden rule is key for long-term capital protection and growth. One oft-used strategy to limit losses in turbulent markets is an allocation to gold. Gold investing is widely regarded as a safe haven during extreme macroeconomic downturns in periods of war, hyperinflation, or major recessions.

But do such allocations to gold really provide the expected protection in practice? And even if so, are there any better ways to mitigate risks? To answer these questions, we revisited the strategic role of gold in investment portfolios and focused on its marginal downside risk reduction benefits relative to bonds and equities.

Our analysis, featured in a new research paper, focuses on annual real returns starting in 1975, when gold became truly tradeable. We took the perspective of a US investor who could strategically invest in equities, bonds, and gold and would care about a wide range of downside risk measures, including downside volatility, loss probability and expected loss.

The key findings of our empirical study are that a modest gold allocation in a traditional mix of equities and bonds reduces the risk of capital losses by around 10% across a wide range of equity-bond allocations. Still, this also reduces the return, leading to a small increase in the return/risk ratio as shown in Figure 1 summarizing the main findings of this study.

Figure 1: Four defensive portfolios

The golden rule of investing | Robeco Global (1)

Source: Lohre, H., and Van Vliet, P. (2023) “The golden rule of investing”, working paper.

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Importantly, however, our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style in the equity investment and letting this defensive equity allocation replace part of the bond allocation. The portfolio with the lowest downside volatility on a one-year horizon consists of 45% bonds, 45% low-volatility stocks and 10% gold.

Our simulations show that the downside volatility can be reduced further by adopting a low volatility style

As a result, this defensive mix has significantly lower downside risk than a traditional equities/bonds portfolio, with higher returns leading to a large increase in the Sortino ratio. This defensive strategy therefore proves to be an effective way for investors to adhere to Buffet’s golden rule, while still delivering long-term capital growth.

Moreover, additional simulations and robustness checks show that these key findings hold not just for the one-year returns initially considered, but also for a wide range of investment horizons, ranging from one month up to 36 months. While these results are robust when gold futures are used instead of a direct gold investment, adding gold mining stocks is less effective in reducing the downside risk of a low-volatility equity portfolio. Lastly, we document that, while the risk mitigation role of gold is muted in a mean-variance setup, low volatility investing is considered just as relevant as when evaluated through a downside risk lens.

Read the full paper on SSRN

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FAQs

What is the golden rule for investment? ›

Keeping your portfolio diversified is important for reducing risk. Having your portfolio in only one or two stocks is unsafe, no matter how well they've performed for you. So experts advise spreading your investments around in a diversified portfolio.

What is Warren Buffett's golden rule? ›

"Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1."- Warren Buffet.

What are Warren Buffett's 5 rules of investing? ›

A: Five rules drawn from Warren Buffett's wisdom for potentially building wealth include investing for the long term, staying informed, maintaining a competitive advantage, focusing on quality, and managing risk.

What is the number 1 rule investing? ›

Warren Buffett once said, “The first rule of an investment is don't lose [money]. And the second rule of an investment is don't forget the first rule.

What is the golden rule simple? ›

Most people grew up with the old adage: "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." Best known as the “golden rule”, it simply means you should treat others as you'd like to be treated.

What is the most popular Golden Rule? ›

It is a rule that aims to help people behave toward each other in a way that is morally good. The Golden Rule is often written as, ''treat others how you want to be treated'' or, ''do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

What will never lose value? ›

Things that don't depreciate in value are things that don't lose their qualities as time passes or things that actually increase in value with the passage of time. These include goodwill, luxurious items, high-quality art, gems, alcoholic beverages, and land.

What does Warren Buffett not invest in? ›

Buffett is also uninterested in gold. In his 2011 letter to shareholders, he noted that gold has two significant shortcomings, “being neither of much use nor procreative.” “If you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end.

What did Warren Buffett tell his wife to invest in? ›

In the interview, he said the Berkshire shares would go to philanthropy. Part of the cash would go directly to his wife and part to a trustee. He told the trustee to put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund.

What does never lose money Warren Buffett mean? ›

It highlights his fundamental investment philosophy with both wit and clarity. Buffett's investment strategy stands out because of his aversion to losses. Instead of accepting losses, he tends to double down on his positions or even increase his investments when they go against him.

How many hours a day does Warren Buffett read? ›

Indeed, the Oracle of Omaha has said that he spends "five or six hours a day" reading books and newspapers. And while it may be difficult to set aside nearly a full work day's worth of hours to read, it recently got a little bit easier to consume information like Warren Buffett.

What is the 7% loss rule? ›

The 7% stop loss rule is a rule of thumb to place a stop loss order at about 7% or 8% below the buy order for any new position. If the asset price falls by more than 7%, the stop-loss order automatically executes and liquidates the traders' position.

What is the 80% rule investing? ›

Definition of '80% Rule'

The 80% Rule is a Market Profile concept and strategy. If the market opens (or moves outside of the value area ) and then moves back into the value area for two consecutive 30-min-bars, then the 80% rule states that there is a high probability of completely filling the value area.

What is the most profitable investment? ›

11 best investments right now
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • Certificates of deposit (CDs)
  • Bonds.
  • Money market funds.
  • Mutual funds.
  • Index Funds.
  • Exchange-traded funds.
  • Stocks.
4 days ago

What is the 100x investment rule? ›

According to this principle, individuals should hold a percentage of stocks equal to 100 minus their age. So, for a typical 60-year-old, 40% of the portfolio should be equities. The rest would comprise high-grade bonds, government debt, and other relatively safe assets.

What is the 7 year rule for investing? ›

According to Standard and Poor's, the average annualized return of the S&P index, which later became the S&P 500, from 1926 to 2020 was 10%. 1 At 10%, you could double your initial investment every seven years (72 divided by 10).

What is the 10/5/3 rule of investment? ›

According to this rule, stocks can potentially return 10% annually, bonds 5%, and cash 3%.

What are the three golden rules of money? ›

The three golden rules of accounting are (1) debit all expenses and losses, credit all incomes and gains, (2) debit the receiver, credit the giver, and (3) debit what comes in, credit what goes out. These rules are the basis of double-entry accounting, first attributed to Luca Pacioli.

What is the golden rule to create more wealth? ›

Spend Less and Save More

However, it is the key to your financial success. Though it is boring, only by spending less and saving will help you through your wealth management process. To create wealth, you need to have surplus funds to invest. Simply exhausting your income and not saving is not going to make you rich.

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