Stock market will fall 20-30% from 2024 peak, predicts JP Morgan report (2024)

FAQs

Stock market will fall 20-30% from 2024 peak, predicts JP Morgan report? ›

"We stick to our view that upside from here appears limited and that equities will fall 20-30% from a 2024 peak," JP Morgan strategists wrote in a note, reported Investing.com. While the overall 2024 outlook for stock market seems bleak, investing in small caps can be favourable this year, said the note.

But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast. That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion to $3 billion for the year.

“For CY [calendar year] 2024, analysts are calling for (year-over-year) earnings growth of 11.0 percent. However, according to a Forbes Advisor analysis, high interest rates and tight credit markets are still having pronounced impacts on certain market sectors.

The average price target for JPMorgan Chase & Co. is $213.96. This is based on 23 Wall Streets Analysts 12-month price targets, issued in the past 3 months. The highest analyst price target is $231.19 ,the lowest forecast is $185.00. The average price target represents 6.60% Increase from the current price of $200.71.

The revised estimates from strategists now put their average year-end target for the S&P 500 at 5,289, implying a decline of less than 1% from Monday's levels, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the average target was around 5,117 (see table below).

Outlook for 2024–2034

The growth of real GDP slows to a rate of 1. 5% in 2024 as inflation continues to decline and the federal funds rate falls. After 2024, real GDP grows at a moderate pace.

U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward

This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.

Target Stock Price Forecast 2024-2025

The forecasted Target price at the end of 2024 is $207 - and the year to year change +45%. The rise from today to year-end: +29%. In the middle of 2024, we expect to see $168.

Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.

What is the stock price prediction for JPMorgan? ›

Based on short-term price targets offered by 23 analysts, the average price target for JPMorgan Chase & Co. comes to $204.35. The forecasts range from a low of $140.00 to a high of $230.00. The average price target represents an increase of 2.52% from the last closing price of $199.33.

The Probability of Bankruptcy of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) is 3.1% . This number represents the probability that JPMorgan will face financial distress in the next 24 months given its current fundamentals and market conditions.

We serve millions of customers in the United States and many of the world's most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients under our J.P. Morgan and Chase brands. J.P. Morgan clients include the world's most prominent corporations, governments, wealthy individuals and institutional investors. Learn more.

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

The forecast from JPMorgan's chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. He and his peers see the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,200 — the lowest year-end target among major Wall Street banks. From current levels, that implies a more than 21% drop.

While there will likely be some additional Negative trends and rating downgrades, these credit rating actions will likely be limited in scope. While net income in 2024 will be pressured by some revenue headwinds and higher loan loss provisioning, expense control should partially mitigate these headwinds.

The commercial real estate outlook for the second half of 2024 is largely positive — multifamily continues to perform, as do industrial and retail. But challenges could lie ahead. The higher interest rate environment appears to be here to stay, and office vacancies continue to climb.

A slight acceleration for advanced economies—where growth is expected to rise from 1.6 percent in 2023 to 1.7 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2025—will be offset by a modest slowdown in emerging market and developing economies from 4.3 percent in 2023 to 4.2 percent in both 2024 and 2025.

The JP Morgan 42nd Annual Healthcare Conference (JPM 2024) will take place January 8-11, 2024 in San Francisco, CA, USA.